Shortly before publishing this newsletter, I spoke with Gil Luria, Managing Director and Analyst at D.A. Davidson, and asked him whether the capital was there to build the 17 Gigawatts of capacity that OpenAI has promised.
He said the following:
No of course there isn't enough capital for all
At the rate things are going, the amount of data and money in the world may not be enough to build ASI yet
OK I mean no offense but all of you are gravely underestimating the potential of ASI and you will pay dearly for it. Some of you I see don’t even know the difference between AGI and ASI. This is ridiculous, I thought this group was anti AI but the last comment j put saying we need to stop them before they develop ASI has dislikes for no reason. Are you all made I’m anti AI or that I said theses tech guys need to be stopped? I’m confused.
I understand the potential of ASI if someone actually manages to build it, I’m just highly skeptical that the current technology we have for doing AI can even scale to proper AGI, let alone ASI. I’m more concerned that these tech companies will waste a ton of resources trying to build it out of a tech that doesn’t have what it takes to get there through just throwing more energy and data at it.